Chapter 2. DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC PROFILE  

Introduction  

As St. Mary Parish assesses future economic development opportunities, its current economic and demographic characteristics provide important insights. In conjunction with touring the area and meetings with key local stakeholders, the WSA Consultant Team reviewed demographic, economic, and real estate market trends for St. Mary Parish. This report summarizes our research and findings and illuminates historical trends, the current context, future prospects for economic growth, and opportunities and challenges facing St Mary Parish as it reinvigorates its local economy.

POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Population

As displayed in Figure 2.1 - St. Mary Parish Population, the population of the Parish has been shrinking since 1980, when 64,253 residents made the Parish home. According to the 2000 Census, the Parish now includes 53,500 residents, its smallest census total since 1960. The decline has been relatively steady, as the Parish's population decreased by about 5,000 residents from 1980 to 1990, and by another 5,000 resident from 1990 to 2000. The overall annual rate of decline for the 20-year period was 0.9 percent.

St. Mary Parish's population decrease occurred as other parts of Louisiana experienced steady growth. During the same two-decade period, the state added over 240,000 residents, and the surrounding eight parish region (Acadia, Evangeline, Iberia, Lafayette, St. Landry, St. Martin, St. Mary, and Vermilion) added 60,000 residents, posting an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent.

Figure 2-1 St. Mary Parish Population

Within the Parish, most communities have been losing population as well. Morgan City, the largest of the Parish's census-defined "places," now has just 12,703 residents, down from over 16,000 in 1980, losing population at an annual rate of 1.2 percent. Other places in the Parish that have suffered significant population losses since 1980 include Amelia (1.9 percent decline), Bayou Vista (1.4 percent), and Franklin (0.7 percent). Among the Parish's eight places, only Charenton (2.1 percent) and Patterson (0.4 percent) have grown.

Intermediate estimates of population completed during the 1990s estimated population in St. Mary Parish as higher than determined by the 2000 Census. The 1999 estimate for the Parish from the U.S. Bureau of the Census was 56,795 persons. Since the actual 2000 Census count came out substantially lower than contemporary estimates, future projections using pre-2000 data are also likely to be too high. The most recent population projections for St. Mary Parish by the Louisiana Population Data Center were completed in 1997. At that time, 2000 population for the Parish was forecasted at 56,330 persons, which would have been just a slight decline from 1990. From 2000 forward, the 1997 projections show very little growth through 2005, with a projected total of 56,580 persons, then increased growth from 2005 on, culminating in a 2020 population total of 59,870 persons.

Age and Household Characteristics

Over the past decade, the St. Mary Parish population has aged considerably. In 1990, the median age of the Parish was 29.6 years; by 2000 the median age had jumped to 34.3 years. During this decade, the share of all age groups under 45 years declined, while all age groups over 45 years increased. As shown in Figure 2.2 - Population by Age, the largest decline was among the younger age brackets that make up a significant share of the work force: ages 18-24 and ages 25-44. These age groups shares declined from 10.1 to 8.5 percent and from 30.5 to 28.9 percent, respectively. The largest gainer in terms of share was the 45-54 age group, which saw its share increase from 9.9 to 12.8 percent. The percentage of school-age children also declined in the 1990s, with the share of those aged 5-17 dropping from 23.3 to 22.3 percent of the total population.

In terms of absolute population loss, the figures corresponding to the decreasing shares are even more striking, due to the Parish's overall population loss. In 1990, the Parish had about 18,700 residents under the age of 18; in 2000, this cohort included fewer than 16,000 people. Even as the number of children decreased, a surge in the number of older residents occurred, despite the overall population loss. From 1990 to 2000, the number of residents in St. Mary Parish over the age of 55 grew from 10,000 persons to about 10,750 persons. The aging of the Parish's population has implications for labor force participation, discussed later in the chapter and plan.

Figure 2-2 Population by Age

The dynamics of St. Mary Parish households have also shifted in recent years. From 1990 to 2000, the share of married-couple households in the Parish dropped from 57 percent to 51 percent; during the same period, the number of one-person households grew from 20 percent to 23 percent. This change reflects the continuing shift occurring nationwide from family households to non-family households. This shift is borne out in the Parish's average household size, which declined from 2.95 persons in 1990 to just 2.74 persons in 2000. While this average size is still well above the national figure, it is lower than for many other rural parishes and counties.

Projections for the next 20 years prepared by the Louisiana Population Data Center show that nearly all population growth in the Parish will occur in the 65 and older cohort, as shown in Figure 2.3 - Population Projections by Age Cohort.

Figure 2-3 Population Projections by Age Cohort

While the other age cohorts in the projections (0-4, 5-19, 20-34, 35-64) are all projected to either decline or grow by less than five percent, the 65 and over cohort is projected to grow by more than 50 percent, from 5,700 to 8,700 people. Even if the overall magnitude of population change is not dramatic, the shift to an older population with many more retirees seems likely.

Linear projection techniques were also used in projecting the Parish's population to the Year 2020. Linear projections involve the graphical projection of the past historical trends into the future. In this case, linear techniques of choice were "linear regression", "exponential growth" and "geometric curve". Linear regression forecasts are straight-line projections of historical population. Exponential growth assumes a constant rate of growth in establishing a forecast. The geometric curve assumes an increasing rate of growth. As shown in Figure 2.4, Population Projections, the linear and exponential projections show a declining population in the Parish. However, the purpose of this study is to reverse this trend and increase population growth in the Parish, therefore, the projections arrived from the Population Data Center and the geometric curve scenarios were blended to arrive at a round number 2010 projection of 56,000 persons and a 2020 number of 60,000 persons.

Figure 2-4 Population Projections

Housing Characteristics

The St. Mary Parish housing stock actually decreased from 1990 to 2000, dropping from 21,884 to 21,650 housing units. As displayed in Figure 2.5 - Housing Unit Profile, in 1990, the housing stock in the Parish was comprised of 64.5 percent single-family units, 11 percent multi-family units, and 24.5 percent mobile homes.

Figure 2-5 Housing Unit Profile

Although housing unit characteristics from the 2000 Census are not yet available, it is likely that the decline in housing units stems from the movement of mobile homes out of the Parish. Housing construction in St. Mary Parish has been virtually nonexistent, with a total of just 35 residential permits issued between January 1998 and June 2000.

Despite the substantial population losses suffered in the Parish, the amount of occupied housing units (i.e., households) actually fell very little: from 19,456 to 19,317 units. This represents a loss of just 0.7 percent, compared with the population loss of 7.9 percent. This minimal loss of households is explained by the decline in household size. As larger households give way to smaller households, the same number of people require more housing units.

Another housing trend during the 1990s was the increase in homeownership. The Parish's homeownership rate increased from 68.6 to 73.9 during the 1990s, following national trends. Also of interest is the change in average household size in owner-occupied units versus renter-occupied units. While the average size of owner-occupied units did fall significantly (from 2.98 to 2.79 persons), the average size of renter-occupied units fell much more dramatically, dropping from 2.90 to 2.58 persons.

ECONOMIC AND INCOME TRENDS

Employment Profile

Employment in St. Mary Parish is highly concentrated in the Transportation, Communications, and Utilities (TCU) and Mining industry sectors, which both exceed state and national proportions. As shown in Figure 2.6 - Employment by Industry Comparison, as of 2000, these two sectors together accounted for over 26 percent of all jobs in the Parish: about 7,000 of the Parish's 26,500 jobs are in these two sectors. Nationally, these two sectors only represent 5.6 percent of all jobs, and they comprise just 9.6 percent of the state's jobs. The Manufacturing sector's concentration in the Parish of 13.0 percent is far stronger than in the whole of Louisiana (9.8 percent), but still lags slightly behind the national average of 13.8 percent.

Figure 2-6 Employment by Industry Comparison

Among other industry groups, St. Mary Parish is well below national and state standards for employment in the Retail, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate (FIRE), and Services sectors. Retail jobs only comprise 14.5 percent of the Parish's employment, compared with the national average of 17.4 percent, and the eight-parish regional figure of 19.7 percent. The fact that other parishes in the region feature higher concentrations is a likely indicator that a great deal of potential retail dollars are leaked out of the local economy (this issue is explored further later in the chapter). The Services sector has been by far the fastest growing sector nationally, but it is rather weak in St. Mary Parish, with just 7,200 Services jobs in a parish with 53,500 residents. Services jobs in the Parish represent 27.2 percent of all jobs. Statewide, Services jobs account for 38.0 percent of all jobs, an indication of the strength of the state's tourism industry, among others.

Employment Trends

According to the Louisiana Occupational Information System (LOIS), there were 26,459 people employed in St. Mary Parish in 2000, down substantially from the 1998 level of 30,092. Since LOIS only posts data going back to 1998, historic data comes from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which reports data differently than LOIS. As a result, the employment figures for common years do not match. LOIS' 1999 employment total for the Parish was 26,750, compared with BEA's estimate of 32,591.

Depicted in Figure 2.7 - Employment by Industry, 1970-1999, is 30 years of historical employment levels from BEA's data. Since reaching its all-time peak of 42,800 jobs in 1981, the Parish's employment began to drop until bottoming out at 26,900 jobs in 1987. From that point forward, employment grew steadily, with the exception of the recession in 1992, for every year from 1987 through 1998. However, there was a dramatic falloff in employment in 1999, with a one-year net loss of over 3,000 jobs.

Figure 2-7 Employment by Industry, 1970—1999

As shown, the impact on the Parish's employment base in 1999 was felt across the economy. The biggest loss was in the Manufacturing sector, which lost 1,150 jobs in 1999. Other sectors hit hard in 1999 were Construction, Mining, Services, and Transportation/ Communications/Utilities, all of which lost 300 jobs or more.

The Louisiana Department of Labor (LDOL) tracks employment and wages by industry at the parish level on a quarterly basis. Examining LDOL data from 1990 and 2000 shows how the economy of St. Mary Parish has shifted over the past decade. While the total employment figure is nearly the same, much change has occurred. For starters, as described earlier, total Parish employment grew substantially from 1990 through 1998, but has fallen off in the past couple of years. Also, as the table below illustrates, industrial sectors like Mining, Manufacturing, and Transportation/Communication/Utilities have suffered, while commercial sectors like Retail and Services have grown. The Construction sector also grew from 1990 to 2000, adding 450 jobs.

Labor Force and Unemployment

As of 2000, 23,570 residents participated in the St. Mary Parish's labor force. While this number represents a ten-year low point, it is just 490 fewer people than the 1990 labor force size of 24,060 workers, despite the fact that the Parish's population decreased by 4,500 workers. As a result, the labor force as a percentage of all working age residents (18-64) is a very high 74.3 percent, compared with the 1990 percentage of 71.1 percent.

Unemployment in St. Mary Parish was rather high as of 2000, with an annual average rate of 10.1 percent. While this rate represented an improvement over the 1999 average of 11.3 percent, it is still well above the rates seen in the second half of the 1990s, when unemployment dipped as low as 6.1 percent. The Parish's unemployment rate has historically been far higher than that of the eight-parish region, which posted a 2000 unemployment rate of 6.2 percent. The regional unemployment rate has remained fairly steady, floating between 5.4 percent and 6.9 percent each year from 1995 to 2000.

Displayed in Figure 2.8 - Unemployment Rate, 1990-2000 is a comparison of St. Mary Parish's unemployment rate with those of the eight-parish region, the State of Louisiana, and the United States as a whole. Other than 1997, when St. Mary Parish's rate drew even with the state average at 6.1 percent, the Parish's unemployment rate has been consistently higher than national, state, and regional averages.

Figure 2-8 Unemployment Rate, 1990—2000

Wages

St. Mary Parish workers enjoy very good wages compared with other parishes in the region and with the state as a whole, as shown in Figure 2.9 - Wage Comparison. In 2000, the Parish's average weekly wage was $591.32, which translates to an annual average of about $30,750. The state's average for the year was $536.36, a difference of $55 per week or about $2,860 per year. Among nearby parishes, only Lafayette, the region's largest employment center, has wages anywhere near those of St. Mary, with an average weekly wage of $575.22.

St. Mary's high wages can be attributed to its concentration of industries that typically offer better pay, and not that it offers better wages for similar jobs. St. Mary Parish is a major center for oil and gas extraction, as well as manufacturing employment. These two sectors are typically the highest paying of the major industry categories, as is shown on the chart on the next page. The chart also demonstrates that, in these two sectors as well as in other sectors like Retail and Services, St. Mary's average wages are not much higher than nearby parishes and are actually lower than statewide averages.

Clearly, wages are a concern for St. Mary Parish. It's two highest paying sectors, Mining and Manufacturing, have lost employment in the past decade while its two lowest paying private, non-agricultural sectors-Retail and Services-have grown. As the Parish's economy shifts, the jobs being created are likely to pay lower wages than the jobs they are replacing. This issue will be very important to consider.

Figure 2-9 Wage Comparison

Personal Income

The 1990 Census showed that many more people commuted into St. Mary Parish for work than commuted out: only 2,191 residents of the Parish commuted to work elsewhere, while over 7,400 people commuted in. Consequently, the economic capacity of the resident base-wealth, spending power, etc.-separately from those who work in the Parish but live elsewhere. Since 89 percent of employed residents worked in the Parish in 1990, much of this muscle is exerted within St. Mary Parish's boundaries.

As shown in Figure 2.10 - Per Capita Income, 1999, St. Mary Parish's per capita income level is on par with other parishes within the region, but still well below statewide and national averages. The Parish's 1999 per capita income level was $19,221, which exceeds five of the other seven parishes in the region, but falls short of the per capita income levels in larger parishes like Iberia ($20,470) and Lafayette ($25,876). The statewide average is $22,839 and the national average is $28,546.

Another important aspect of personal income is its character relative to three categories: earnings, interest/ dividends, and transfer payments. As displayed in Figure 2.11 - Per Capita Income Breakdown, 1999, while St. Mary Parish has a rather low percentage of earnings in relation to total income of 60.3 percent, it has a high percentage of interest/dividends income at 20 percent. Its level of transfer payments is 19.7 percent, which is fairly good for the region.

Figure 2-10 Per Capita Income, 1999

Figure 2-11 Per Capita Income Breakdown, 1999

Displayed in Figure 2.12 - Per Capita Income, is the per capita income in St. Mary Parish between 1990 and 1999. After showing no growth in the early part of the 1990s, per capita income in St. Mary Parish began to grow from its 1992 level of $12,896, posting an average gain of 7.4 percent each year from 1992 to 1998, culminating in the $19,792 figure attained in 1998. However, per capita income fell off in 1999, dropping back to $19,221. Still, even with the slow start to the decade and the weak finish, the compound average growth rate in per capita income was a decent 4.8 percent for the 1990-1999 period, not adjusted for inflation.

Taking a closer look at personal income and how it relates to industries additional insights into the economic situation in St. Mary Parish, as shown in Figure 2.13 - Per Capita Income by Industry. In 1990, the Manufacturing and Mining sectors together accounted for 38.6 percent of all earnings of Parish residents; by 1999 they only comprised 31.3 percent. During the same period, the biggest gainer was Construction, which increased its share from 5.5 percent to 9.4 percent, a 3.9 percent increase. Other sectors gaining share were Public Administration (1.6 percent increase), Services (1.4 percent), and Retail (1.0 percent). It is significant to note for Services and Retail that, despite substantial increases in employment, earnings from these industries did not increase their shares by very much.

Figure 2-12 Per Capita Income

Figure 2-13 Per Capita Income by Industry

Honing in a bit closer on particular subsectors within the economy, a few selected industries were big gainers, such as Food and Kindred Products Manufacturing, Water Transportation, Eating and Drinking Places, Hotels and Lodging Places, Repair Services, and Health Services. Some industries that saw personal income shrink from 1990—1999 (not adjusted for inflation) were Fabricated Metal Products Manufacturing, Chemicals and Allied Products Manufacturing, Electric/Gas/Sanitary Services, Communications, Business Services, and Legal Services. Illustrated in Table 2.1 - Gainers and Losers in Personal Income, is how income from these industries changed during the 1990s.

Employment Projections

In 1998, the Louisiana Department of Labor completed 10-year employment projections for each of its eight labor market areas (LMAs). St. Mary Parish is located in LMA No. 4, which also includes Acadia, Evangeline, Iberia, Lafayette, St. Landry, St. Martin, and Vermilion Parishes. For the 1998—2008 period, this region has been projected to post a net gain of 52,750 jobs, raising its employment total from 262,670 to 315,420 jobs.

Over 56 percent of the net gain is expected to come from the Services (21,590 new jobs) and Retail (8,240 new jobs) sectors. Other major sectors projected to gain employment through 2008 include Mining, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Construction, and Transportation/ Communications/Public Utilities, all of which are projected to gain more than 3,000 jobs. Nondurable Goods Manufacturing is projected to suffer employment losses, particularly in the Apparel and Textile Products and Food and Kindred Products industries.

Table 2.1
Gainers and Losers in Personal Income

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, WSA Consultant Team

Looking more closely at individual industry groups projected to grow the most, a number of Services industries are expected to be big gainers, especially Business, Health, Educational, and Social Services, all of which are projected to add 2,000 or more jobs. Other growth industries include Eating and Drinking Places, Miscellaneous Retail, and Food Stores in the Retail Sector, Transportation and Industrial Equipment Manufacturing, and Real Estate. The Oil and Gas Extraction industry was projected to gain over 5,500 jobs, but given the fact that it has not grown at all in St. Mary Parish in over two decades, its growth is likely occur elsewhere.

Retail Sales

In examining retail sales at the parish level, a key measure of performance entails comparing spending by residents with money spent in the parish. This analysis reveals how effective the Parish is at avoiding the "leakage" of retail dollars, as well as how effective it is at drawing spending from outside its borders. The data used herein comes from Sales and Marketing Management magazine's 2001 Survey of Buying Power.

As shown in Figure 2.14 - Comparison of Retail Spending with Effective Buying Income, St. Mary Parish is fairly competitive in the regional retail market, as retail spending in the Parish totals about 80 percent of the effective buying income of its residents. While St. Mary Parish cannot compare with a major retail destination like Lafayette Parish, where spending exceeds resident buying power, it does compare favorably with the State average of 73 percent and with all other parishes in the region.

Figure 2-14 Retail Spending and Buying Income

According to Sales and Marketing Management data, money spent on retail goods and services in St. Mary Parish in 2001 totaled $544.8 million. Of this amount, Food & Beverage stores accounted for 23 percent of sales, General Merchandise 18 percent, and Motor Vehicles and Parts 17 percent. Of lesser magnitude were Eating & Drinking Places (8 percent) and Furniture & Home Furnishings (3 percent), as shown in Figure 2.15. - Annual Retail Spending by Category. The "Other Retail" category was actually the largest at 31 percent. This category includes items like Apparel and Accessories, Entertainment, Sporting Goods, Building Materials, and Pharmacies.

Tracking trends with data from Sales and Marketing Management is difficult, as the survey changed between 1999 and 2000. However, some history can be observed, looking from 1991 to 1998, as shown in Figure 2.16 - Retail Sales in St. Mary Parish, 1991—1998.

Figure 2-15 Annual Retail Spending by Category

Figure 2-16 Retail Sales in St. Mary Parish, 1991—1998

Clearly, retail sales in the Parish suffered during the recession of the early 1990s, remaining stagnant from 1991 to 1993. A huge jump occurred in 1994, but then sales continue to remain at that level for several more years before posting gains again in 1998. This jump was the result of adjusting the data with new information from the 1992 Census of Retail Trade, and not really a reflection of a major economic boost. Although no continuous data is available beyond 1998, it is likely that retail sales have fallen off in recent years.

Tourism in the Parish

Tourism does not play a major role in the Parish economy, as displayed in Table 2.2 - Profile of Tourism. As of 1996 (the most recent data available from the State of Louisiana), St. Mary Parish only generated $31 million per year in tourism spending-just 0.5 percent of the state total of $6.5 billion.

Within the Parish, the tourism industry accounted for just 360 jobs posting a total payroll of $5.06 million. These jobs only accounted for 1.1 percent of total employment in the Parish. Furthermore, wages from these jobs were very low, with an average annual salary of just $14,055.

The St. Mary Parish tourism industry demonstrates low economic productivity. Only a small percentage of its revenue goes towards wages: 16.2 percent compared with the State's average of 20.6 percent. Clearly, tourism could contribute more to the Parish, either in terms of creating quality jobs or in terms of generating spending.

IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TRENDS AND CONDITIONS

The recent economic shocks suffered by St. Mary Parish were unfortunate and reflect the area's dependence on a few volatile sectors. The Parish's three basic industries—oil & gas extraction, transportation equipment manufacturing, and water transportation—all depend on its natural resources of oil and seafood, and the marketplace's demands for these resources. All other industries in the Parish and, indeed, the Parish's very economic vitality, are vulnerable to national and even international disturbances in these markets.

Table 2.2
Profile of Tourism

Source: Louisiana Assistance Program; WSA Consultant Team

The past three years offers a stark picture of the contemporary St. Mary Parish economy. Closing the Texaco operation in Morgan City affected more than just the oil and gas industry; the impact rippled through the other sectors too. Taken separately, the oil and gas extraction industry only lost about 400 jobs from 1998 to 2000; however, the entire Parish saw its employment base fall by 3,500 jobs. The transportation equipment manufacturing sector in the Parish depends directly on the oil extraction industry, and subsequently lost over 900 jobs alone. With the loss of industrial jobs, the demand for business services declines: this sector lost nearly 300 jobs during the 1998-2000 period. Convenience retail shopping suffers as well, and the building materials retailers and food stores in the Parish lost over 150 jobs during that span.

Examining the ripple effects through the entire economy, it becomes clear that diversifying the St. Mary Parish economy is the only way to avoid future economic "lightning strikes". In comparison with its neighbors, the State of Louisiana, and the United States as a whole, St. Mary Parish's economy has seen relatively little structural change over the past 30 years. During that time, manufacturing, mining, and other industrial jobs have given way to services, retail, and other commercial jobs in most of the country. However, in St. Mary Parish, the structure of the economy has remained quite stable.

What has occurred in the Parish since the late 1970s has not been due to structural changes-it has happened because of the Parish's traditional hierarchical economy has not changed. The Parish's all time high employment levels occurred in the early 1980s, at the height of the national oil boom, but these stratospheric employment figures came crashing back to earth by 1987, when employment in the Parish dipped to its lowest point since the depths of the energy crisis in 1973. As goes the oil industry, so goes the St. Mary Parish economy.

Aside from economic issues, another brewing issue in St. Mary Parish is its changing population. Over the past two decades, the Parish's population has gotten much older and its average household size has declined dramatically. Population projections foresee these two trends continuing into the future, and as the population changes, so must the economy. With ever more senior citizens living in the Parish, there will be greater demand for health care, specialty retail businesses catering to this population, new types of housing, and different sorts of recreational opportunities.

Another consideration is the Parish's labor force. Perhaps the most curious statistic in this review is that, even as the Parish's population fell precipitously, the size of its labor force remained stable. This is very likely a product of increases in both two-income families and of one-person households (i.e., from postponing marriage, divorces, separations, etc.). In the past, with many high-wage jobs in the mining, manufacturing, and water transportation industries, many households could make do with one wage earner. However, as higher paying jobs give way to lower paying retail and services jobs, more people- particularly women-are entering the workforce. The combination of the loss of "traditional" jobs with the entry of new people into the labor force presents issues of job skills. Many people looking for work in the Parish may not have the skills they need to land good jobs. As the economy shifts, job training will become increasingly important.

Also important to consider is the impact of tourism. Many rural areas around the nation have used resource-based tourism-either recreational or historic-as a basis for rebuilding their economies. At the present time, there is very little to see and do from a tourist's perspective in St. Mary Parish and, with the exception of the annual Louisiana Shrimp & Petroleum Festival, there are few special events aimed at visitors. There are many opportunities in the Parish to build tourism, and the International Petroleum Museum and Exposition (Rig Museum) is an excellent start, as is its new visitor center in downtown Morgan City. The extensive waterfront revitalization efforts underway thanks to partnerships with the Atchafalaya Basin Commission, the Army Corps of Engineers and others will also expand the menu of visitor-friendly places and promote this sector of the economy.